The handover of Hong Kong to China will not result in Hong Kong’s demise. Fact is, China won’t let Hong Kong fall. Let that sink in... China won’t let Hong Kong fall. China knows that Hong Kong is a significant factor to its economic future. Hong Kong is not just the Gateway, Hong Kong is the Gatekeeper. "A guardian? Of what?" you might ask. Hong Kong will become China’s guardian of competitiveness, enterprise, technology, modernization, and financing. A signal of this from the Chinese government, were announcements, late in 1995 and early in 1996, to support Hong Kong in the establishment of research and development expertise. The point being how China is relating to Hong Kong... not just the gateway, but also as the gatekeeper.

Hong Kong is the most important base for Chinese equity raising. Fifty-one percent of the market capitalization of Chinese stocks, for investment by foreigners, comes from Hong Kong. Without Hong Kong, China would have a much harder time buildingup its industrial base. It relies on Hong Kong not only as a financial resource, but as a gateway for technology.

Let’s look at some startling Hong Kong facts: ranked third in international competitiveness; number one container port in the world; third largest international banking center; banking assets represent 13% of the world's total banking assets; eighth largest stock market capitalization in the world (2nd in Asia to Tokyo); largest concentration of International Fund Managers in the world; China’s largest trading partner (46% of external trade); largest overseas investor in China (63% share of total overseas investment) and finally, a five hour flight from half the world’s population. Would YOU let if fall?

"The Chinese government’s intentions are uncertain," say those who look on with skepticism. In reality the Chinese government’s Hong Kong blueprint provides more certainty for the next fifty years than the tiny island has had for the last twenty. The theme of their blueprint is "no changes for fifty years." True, China does have a track record of breaking its word. So, now one is faced with a choice, "Do I take China at its word, or how it has acted in the past?" If you believe, like I do, that China is becoming more and more economically motivated, then take them at their word. And even if politically motivated, to have Hong Kong prosper under Chinese rule, to far loftier heights than when the territory was under England's rule, would no doubt bring broad smiles to the spirits that haunt the Forbidden City.

Finally, even the optimists are concerned that Shanghai will take the spotlight, leaving Hong Kong as a satellite city to China. It is possible that Shanghai could develop itself and stock market. Key corporate decision makers could move from Hong Kong to Shanghai, thereby diminishing the importance of Hong Kong’s role in the world. But even if Hong Kong arrested its technological development, it would take Shanghai fifteen years to develop itself to the state of the art city that Hong Kong currently is. More to the point, however, the mayors of Shanghai have stated they have no intentions of competing with Hong Kong as an international financial centre. Their vision for Shanghai is to build it into a national financial centre.

Finally, the latest buzz on Hong Kong’s street is "no nonsense from nobody." This is a city whose people mean business. The confident one’s will embrace the risk, stay in Hong Kong, witness history, and participate in the awakening of a sleeping giant. The one’s insecure about Hong Kong will shy from the risk, leave, and miss out on an opportunity of a lifetime. Singapore will provide security for the uncertain ones and certainly its importance in Asia will increase. BUT, not to the point that it will overtake Hong Kong. Hong Kong is where the action is... and money likes action.